Wednesday, June 16, 2010

Light at the End of the Tunnel

The Pirates have lost nine in a row, and they're finding creative ways to lose close games now. Badly timed pitching mistakes. Errors. mental miscues. A lack of timely hitting. Still, I think things are looking up, and the imminent arrival of Pedro Alvarez in Pittsburgh is as good a time as any to point it out: the kids we've been waiting for look good.

For the first time in several election cycles, there are young players with talent on most positions. (We'll address pitching another day.) There are really only two holes in the lineup, one of which should be pretty easy to address in the off-season. To wit:

C - At 29, this is probably as good as it gets for Ryan Doumit. It'll do. Nothing great, but he hits better than most catchers, has the requisite leadership skills, and his defense isn't a weakness. It's hard to defend his record for (not) throwing out base runners, but the pitchers deserve a lot of the blame for that. It's not Doumit holding the team back. (Unless he plays first base.)

1B - Let's say Garrett Jones for now. The Legend is solid in the field, and his average has climbed steadily the past few weeks. He doesn't have Ryan Howard power, and last year's 21 homers in half a season is probably too much, but he should be a consistent 20-30 home run man who can play a couple of different positions well. Definitely a keeper.

2B - We all assumed Andy LaRoche would wind up here when Alvarez arrived; now the job is Neil Walker's to lose. Walker has done everything anyone could ask, and his fielding has been a revelation, considering he just started playing second at Indianapolis this year. Let Bill Mazeroski work with him on turning the double play next winter in Bradenton and he could be a solid middle of the infield player for years.

SS - Hole Number 1. Ronnie Cedeno does everything just well enough to allow you to believe he's not killing you, but he is. His OBP is awful, and his fielding can be an adventure. Shortstop is the most critical upgrade on the roster.

3B - Alvarez is here. If he's all they say he is, he can be a cornerstone of a successful franchise for years to come.

LF - Jose Tabata has only been in The Show for a week, but it's been an impressive week. On base every time you look, great speed (and aggressive with it), has centerfielder's range. No problems here.

CF - Andrew McCutchen is the real deal. Still four years shy of his Age 27 season, he's a four-and-a-half tool player, and if his power picks up even a little he'll fill out the fifth tool. Without question the Pirates most talented player since Barry Bonds, with none of Bonds' downside. (Even in Pittsburgh, Bonds was a tool.)

RF - Hole Number Two. Ryan Church is killing the team with his .180 average in the middle of the lineup, and there's nothing Lastings Milledge does well. Doesn't hit for average or power, has great speed but barely knows you're supposed to turn left at each of those white things, and he might be the worst outfielder I've seen. Every ball is an adventure, and his Web Gems are usually because he's gotten a bad jump or taken a bad route to the ball. Fortunately, this is the easiest hole to fix. Corner outfielders who can hit are in relatively good supply. If one can't be found and a first baseman is available, Jones can move to right, where he was much better than I expected.

Bench - Andy LaRoche can be a good utility man if he can at least manage a league average OPS. He's an excellent athlete, smart, and has a great attitude. Jason Jaramillo is a good receiver, but it doesn't appear he's going to hit. Switch-hitting backup catchers can have long careers, so he's worth keeping around, assuming Doumit can stay healthy. Jaramillo's okay for a start or two a week and some late inning work, but you don't want him getting 20 at bats a week. No one knows what Delwyn Young can do; they only play him when there's no way around it. We've seen what Aki Iwamure can do, and he should be free to do it elsewhere. (In fairness, I has happy to see Iwamura come, but that knee appears to bother him more than anyone could have expected. With Walker being a revelation, there's no need for him.)

Now the key question is, what happens with this new core when they become arbitration eligible and start to make some real money? Management says they'll pay to keep the players they want, but it's been a long time since Pirate management said anything that turned out well for the fans or the team on the field.

No comments: